thebitterguy

Wha-wha-wha? Let's not have a discussion of short games with the word Munchkin in them. That sucker lasts for freakin' DAYS. I'm ready to throw in the towel by the end of the first hour.

Seriously, it's like the monopoly of card games.

The Settlers system does make these kind of late-game lockups possible, especially in a group where all players have a certain amount of experience with the game. Games where all four players have more than 7 points in the end-game are usually overly drawn out affairs.

What this means is that as a Clever Weasel(tm), you must act aggressively more quickly, based on your perception of the results of the set-up. If one player doesn't get hosed in the first three turns by ruthless road builds, then you could be in for a long night, and you must take aggressive steps to prevent the mutually friendly end game that will drag out and minimize your chances for winning.

The easiest way to be aggressive, short of aggressive road builds (this should always be your first choice, and in my opinion, aggressive road building in the first three turns is more important than your third village build or your first city build), is to buy cards. Build up a supply of knights and then become aggressive with rolled 7s and your knights. Try to ensure you always have a knight in reserve to protect yourself against robbers placed on your properties. When victimizing with the robber, try not to pick on all players equally; pick on the second or first place player and one of the other two -- your goal is to always leave that fourth player with a wrenching decision about what to do with the robber when they roll. If you share a rich hex with a player, then make sure you victimize them with the robber, because it will leave them less options when they roll sevens.

Another easy way to be aggressive is to be ruthlessly generous and polite with your trades. Try not to stiff anyone with trades, but always know what your minimum price for any trade is and stick to that. If you trade with everyone, more often than others, that "generosity" will help to counteract the ruthless board play you must put into motion.

The plain fact of the matter is that if only two players get to seven or eight points before the other players break the six barrier, then the game is pretty much over, short of an incredible string of bad luck. If one player gets to eight while all other players are two points back, the game is, again, pretty much over short of a string of bad luck. Your best defense as a front runner is cards, so put a priority on their purchase.

If you're in second or third place, then the relative worth of cards goes down severely.

Players who are trailing often buy cards, because they feel frustrated that "they have nothing else to do". This is a sign that they're doomed to lose, in my opinion. Cards are a luxury pick that helps the rich get richer; they are much too expensive for poor folks to afford. If you're in a poor position, you should always seek to trade before buying cards, I think. Trades serve two purposes: they generate good will, and they keep goods flowing through your hand and increase your chances for resource diversity.

That said, the setup and first three turns of the game are incredibly important, and with experience players, if you're hosed after three turns, you're pretty much done. This makes initial placement and your initial road builds absolutely vitally important. If you cannot secure four build locations for yourself in the first three turns, then you're fighting an uphill battle for the rest of the game.